Better Fish Count on the Way?

Changes coming in how the government estimates fish populations—will it be right this time?

Misjudge the opposition in battle and it's fatal. Follow a faulty business plan and it's failure. Miscalculate populations of fish and it's mismanagement.

If an angler survey reflects one million mutton snapper caught when it's actually one hundred thousand, all the bean counting, number crunching and decisions that follow are a sham. Poor regulations and closures inevitably come into play—no doubt one of the reasons why so many “threatened” and “overfished” species still exist even after 35 years of governmental oversight.

Bad estimates of recreational fish catches and effort represent one of the weakest links in the fishery management chain, bested only by historic commercial fishing excesses. In fact, that fragile chain is still at the breaking point because the estimates continue to be based on poor survey methods. The bad and good news is the same: Decades of fishery decisions in federal waters were based on those faulty methods, and the government finally admitted it and is attempting to patch it.

Act I opened in 1976 when Congress decided to become involved in marine fishery matters with the passing of the Magnuson-Stevens Act (MSA). It set up federal layers of bureaucracies for saltwater species within the Department of Commerce, specifically the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its National Marine Fisheries Service (today known as NOAA Fisheries, for short). To obtain data on recreational angling, in 1979 the MSA promulgated the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistical Survey (MRFSS).

Act II of this tragedy spans decades of ill-fated MRFSS methods for calculating recreational catches. It caused anglers with on-the-water experience, conservation groups and voices like Florida Sportsman to loudly express disagreement with many of the MRFSS findings and the resulting Draconian measures. But NOAA Fisheries turned a deaf ear until 2006 with the reauthorization of the MSA, whereby the National Academy of Sciences was beseeched to conduct an objective analysis of MRFSS. Its report confirmed the obvious: The curtain needed to be dropped on MRFSS. Sweeping changes were recommended, including (ahem) working more closely with recreational anglers.

By fall of 2008, a new agency to tackle this took the stage: the Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP). MRIP is attempting to implement new methods and models to replace MRFSS in providing fishery data. This includes changing how anglers are surveyed and speeding the time it takes to update NOAA Fisheries.

“The MRFSS surveys clearly weren't providing what was needed,” acknowledged Gordon Colvin, MRIP's program manager. “The National Academy of Sciences drove home that point and its recommendations are being followed.”

Colvin said that the first mission of MRIP is to improve the survey methods, followed by expanding the sample sizes and reducing bias. The new processes should be in place by 2013 if not before. Until then, MRFSS surveys will continue to be mainly conducted by phone and on an “intercept” basis. In 2010, those phone interviews entailed 277,177 random calls to coastal residents in 18 states and Puerto Rico.

However, only a small proportion of the interviews were of any relevance. In Florida, for example—where over 25% of the calls were made—a measly 5,015 out of 71,427 households contacted said they'd fished in the prior two months, the requirement to qualify in the survey. Many said that was a stupendous amount of wasted time and money.

Under MRIP, phone calls will be targeted directly to coastal anglers by way of the National Saltwater Angler Registry, in which all those who hold a fishing license are automatically included. A model is also being devised for anglers in non-licensing regions and states like Texas that do their own data collection.

The intercept interviews take place in person at marinas, piers, fishing tournaments and the like. In 2010, Florida accounted for 40,508 intercepts—nearly one-third of the total nationally. However, the present modus operandi allows interviewers too much leeway in timing and site selection, often leading to biased data. Colvin insists that will be corrected with MRIP via fewer interviewer options and a more rigorous process of selecting representative sites.

“The goal is to also shorten the time to get estimates to decision-makers from the present 45 days to 30, thereby reducing lag time between fishing activities and management decisions,” said Colvin. Influences on fishing effort such as bad weather, oil spills and the like would be factored into the random samples.

MRIP is a noble effort and will merit applause if improvements result in estimates of recreational effort and catches in federal waters. Now, if we can just correct commercial under-reporting and recreational anglers chronically stuck with the short end of the allocation stick, it would set the stage for much better management.

For at least the next year, however, we're still guided by the flawed methods of MRFSS, and continuing to depend on outmoded data. Let's table many ongoing federal rules until the new MRIP gives us a better script for Act III. FS