Wind and seas increase as a front approaches.

How many times have you ventured offshore expecting 2- to 3-foot seas, as forecast by our diligent government, only to turn around at the sea buoy and hightail it home, running before 6-foot storm seas?

The night before, during your long winter's nap, visions of ballyhoo dancing through your head, a cold front was sneaking through your backyard--a day earlier than predicted.

Had you read the morning paper, and seen the story about record snowfall in Alabama, you would have anticipated a sudden increase in the wind. Better yet, had you looked at the clouds on your way outside to pick up the paper, you would have expected a blustery day. Maybe it would have been best to stay at home and wait it out. Or, if you're like me, maybe it would've been best to pack the inshore tackle box with plugs and jigs to fish the bay in relative calm.

Cold fronts are a fact of life in Florida, and for several months they'll determine when and how we fish, both inshore and off. As anglers, we have a love-hate relationship with these weather systems. Sometimes Old Man Winter brings excellent fishing; other times he stuffs our stockings with small craft warnings. With a basic understanding of cold fronts and how they behave, we can put ourselves a step ahead and prepare for whatever's coming our way.

Weather reports issued through newspapers, television and VHF weather channels give us advance notice of approaching fronts. They show us what's happening in other parts of the country, and they offer predictions as to what'll happen here. That's valuable stuff, but there are limits to forecasting methods, and obvious discrepancies between predictions and actual conditions. When it comes down to the wire--whether a front will blow through before or after noon, or whether the seas will be two feet or six feet--your own observations can help give you the whole story. Remember, what's written in the sky is always more accurate than what's written in ink.

Cold fronts aren't really all that complicated, although their behavior is sometimes described as chaotic. They're basically just immense bodies of cold air pulled along by the jet stream--a powerful wind moving from west to east in the upper atmosphere. The stream marks the boundary between warm air moving toward the north pole and cooler air that's moving toward the equator. There's a huge difference in air temperature and pressure here, and consequently a lot of wind. In summer, the jet stream usually hangs around 60 degrees latitude.

In autumn, the northern hemisphere tilts away from the sun, and there's less solar energy warming the earth's surface. The jet stream gets stronger and moves south. It puts that chilly air into a bundle (actually a high pressure system), carries it to Florida, and dumps it on our doorstep, often arriving at the same time as Canadian license plates. Usually, the first cold front of consequence blows through the state sometime in November, although we'll likely get windy but mild fronts starting in October.

When a cold front makes its way to our state, dicey weather often precedes its arrival. Warm air rises above the leading edge of the front, forming clouds. When the clouds reach cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere, moisture condenses and rain falls. It's especially evident when fronts approach the Gulf and Atlantic coasts--both tremendous sources of moisture.

As the frontal edge pushes warmer air skyward, low pressure is created at the surface. It's the nature of wind to move from high to low pressure, so part of the front begins drawing more wind into itself. The effect sometimes gets really wild, creating cyclonic storms like nor'easters and the notorious March 13, 1993 Storm of the Century.

This season, in particular, may be especially stormy. Climatologists say we're in one of the strongest El Ni¤o years in history. Because of unseasonably warm water in the Pacific Ocean, we'll probably have more and stronger cold fronts. The cause-and-effect relationship is pretty tricky to explain, but suffice to say when the southern branch of the jet stream dips into the Gulf of Mexico--as it does during El Nino years--it generates low pressure centers that bring rain and wind to Florida--not to mention cool temperatures and cloud cover that lower our water temperature.

Not all fronts produce gale-force conditions, but most follow a recognizable pattern--one which anglers should remember and use to their advantage. Winds in the northern hemisphere blow counterclockwise into a center of low pressure, and clockwise out of a high. This is why the wind seems to "clock" around when a front moves over. Knowing this, you can judge much of the weather by looking at a tendril of Spanish moss, clouds overhead or any number of wind indicators. I like to use the flag outside my office window; old Stars and Bars is the most reliable weather reporter I've found yet.

Before a cold front, high pressure to the north off the east coast keeps the wind out of the east. As the high moves east and a cold front gears up, the wind shifts southeast and strengthens. Air pressure drops and the barometer begins to fall. If you have your own barometer at home, you can use it to monitor the movement of a front.